Trouble Brewing in Anbar

I've talked before on this blog about the tenuous nature of the security situation in Iraq. Contrary to the political triumphalism of some hawks in Washington who declared the surge a total success and the war essentially won, the military leaders on the ground have much more mixed feelings.

Yes, the surge played an important role in quelling violence in Baghdad. However, just as important (and possibly more important) were two lucky developments that helped decrease violence. In late 2007, Moqtada al-Sadr -- a popular cleric and leader of the largest Shiite militia in Iraq -- declared a unilateral ceasefire, ending attacks on American troops. Since Sadr's Madhi Army was responsible for much of the violence in Baghdad, and also provoked retaliatory Sunni attacks, the ceasefire immediately and drastically decreased the level of violence.

The other important development, which first appeared just as the idea of a surge was appearing in Washington, was a trend of Sunni militias turning against al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia (AQM). AQM was a partly foreign group, once commanded by the infamous Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, which perpetrated the most heinous and bloody attacks against innocents in Iraq.

In 2005 and 2006, Sunni militias gradually turned against AQM, first targeting both AQM and American forces, and eventually stopping attacks on Americans altogether. American commanders jumped at this opportunity, offering the Sunni militias money to work with them and offering to incorporate them in the official Iraqi security apparatus. Termed the "Anbar Awakening" or the "Sunni Awakening", this move effectively stopped attacks on US forces by most Sunni militias. As a result, violence decreased even further, to the point that Iraq was seen as generally stable and secure.

This general stability continued throughout 2008, but is now being threatened. As a result of financial difficulties caused by a drop in oil prices, the Iraqi government was only able to give jobs in the Iraqi security force to 5,000 Awakening members. This left 95 percent of the total Sunni militia members in the program without a source of income. Since most of these militia members attacked US forces out of a need for income, and joined the Awakening for the same reason, this is a very troubling sign.

Combined with a general mistrust between the Shiite government and these Sunni Awakening members, this breakdown in the Awakening agreement has many Sunnis threatening to rejoin the insurgency. Some groups have already resigned from the Awakening Council, citing the lack of jobs and hostility from the Shiite government.

One Awakening leader remarked, "Until now, promises are all we’ve gotten. When the government does not even pay them enough to stay alive, Qaeda and armed groups are ready to pay them generously."

Experts on the situation in Iraq are concerned with these developments, but say that the situation is not yet out of control. Counterinsurgency expert Thomas Ricks commented that he was not yet "hitting the panic button," but said that the Sunni-populated area west of Baghdad could become "the emerging battleground between the Shiite-dominated central government and the Anbar tribes."

A breakdown in the Iraqi security situation could have serious effects on the Obama administration's withdrawal plans, as well as plans for stepping up efforts in Afghanistan. If the Iraqi government does not act quickly to address the concerns of these Awakening members, they risk seeing their nation spiral once more into violence and chaos.