A New Cold War Emerging?

A number of troubling developments arose in the past few days concerning Russian relations with the West and the aftermath of the war in Georgia.

1) In defiance of calls by Europe and the United States to respect the internationally-recognized borders of Georgia, Russia officially recognized the independence of the breakaway Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgia called the move a blatant territorial grab in violation of the recent ceasefire.

2) Russia announced that it is halting military cooperation with NATO, and warned that it is prepared to cut all ties with the alliance. Even before the Georgian conflict erupted, Russian-NATO ties were strained over NATO moves toward installing ballistic missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, as well as the possibility of Georgia and Ukraine becoming NATO members.

This will have serious repercussions for the NATO forces in Afghanistan, who rely on logistical lines through Russia. Instability in Pakistan, worsened by the recent resignation of pro-US President Pervez Musharraf, endangered another of NATO's primary logistical connections leading into landlocked Afghanistan.

3) The European Union is considering sanctions against Russia in response to its recognition of indepedence for South Ossetia and Abkhazia. EU leaders discussed sanctions as well as various other means of punishing Moscow for undermining Georgian sovereignty. The EU's moves were echoed by the "Group of Seven States" economic organization (G7) -- Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the US -- who talked of serious repercussions for Russia.

4) The presence of nine NATO warships in the Black Sea delivering humanitarian aid to war-torn Georgia could prove explosive amid tense US-Russian relations. There are reportedly nine more ships en route to the Black Sea, where Russia has just returned its flagship cruiser 'Moskva', where it will reportedly perform weapons tests. Russia has already complained about the NATO ships near the Georgian coast.

Having numerous warships in close proximity to each other during a time of such enormous tensions -- especially with one side conducting "weapons tests" in the area -- is very worrisome. There are countless ways in which miscommunications, malfunctions, or small mishaps between the tense forces could escalate out of control. If tensions do accidentally or unnecessarily boil over into some sort of altercation, the consequences could threaten the entire world.

Statements by numerous diplomats, analysts, and pundits warn of an emerging "Second Cold War", even as the world hopes the situation does not escalate into a more dangerous "hot" war.