Tensions Explode In Georgia

(Note: this is a very rough outline of what is going on, intended to present a general picture of the situation as it evolves. I will follow up with more specific, detailed, and coherent analysis.)

The world geopolitical scene has heated up considerably today as tensions between Russia and its former Soviet satellite state, Georgia, have exploded into an all-out military conflict. Relations between the two countries have been deteriorating for some time, as Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili pursued pro-Western policies that challenged Russia's influence in the region, even signaling hopes of joining NATO. Russia has responded by militarily and economically supporting anti-government separatist groups in Georgia's northern provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Here's how things have escalated so far:

Georgian president Saakashvili launched a large offensive into the separatist province of South Ossetia, which borders Russia. Georgian forces took control of the city of Tskhinvali, South Ossetia's capitol, before being overwhelmed by responding Russian forces. Early reports indicate that 10 Russian "peacekeepers" (in reality Russian forces supporting separatist groups in the province) were killed in the initial Georgian assault, as well as an undetermined number of Russian nationals.

According to reports by the Stratfor intelligence service, it is estimated that Russia has now moved at least 600 tanks and 2,000 armored vehicles (8 motor rifle regiments, 2 tank regiments, 2 airborne regiments, and 2-3 artillery regiments) into the fight against Georgia. The Russian Air Force is also utilizing its massive air power -- consisting of MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters, Su-24 fighter/bombers, Su-25 close air support (CAS) attack aircraft, and Mi-24 Hind helicopter gunships -- to overwhelm Georgian forces.

The main Russian advance southward into Georgia is through the Roki Tunnel, which cuts through mountainous terrain and connects the Russian province of North Ossetia with Georgian South Ossetia. You can see a satellite view of the location of the conflict, with a couple important landmarks, on Google Maps here.

The situation has the potential to escalate from a regional squabble between Russia and Georgia into a much wider global conflict. The conflict between the pro-Western, pro-American Georgia and a Russian leadership that is attempting to reassert its primacy in the region reflects a wider conflict between the interests of Russia and its allies, and an expanding Anglo-American-European NATO organization that is encroaching on Russia's "near abroad."

The Washington Post has already published an editorial saying that "The US and its allies must unite against Moscow's war on Georgia." While the US military is relatively well-placed in the region for a reaction (with large logistical bases in Turkey, Iraq capable of supporting limited military reaction in the area), it is already stretched to limit with commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq. More importantly, the ramifications of military action in support of the Georgian government could be horrific.

Washington's reaction to this outbreak will signal America's willingness to support strategic eastern- and central-European allies against aggression by rival powers. The conflict in Georgia is therefore symbolic of wider tensions in global politics, and has the potential to grow much more. American and European interest in the vast oil transport infrastructure in the region will also no doubt play a role in the determination of Washington's reaction, as it has no doubt influenced Moscow's decision to attack the recalcitrant Georgian republic.