Mixed Signals in Georgia

Moscow continues to send mixed signals about its intentions in Georgia. While Russia and Georgia have signed a ceasefire agreement, there is apparently some debate between the two sides as to what the ceasefire actually says, and what it requires of the two nations. After the agreement was signed, Russian president Dmitry Medvedev officially called for a halt to operations in Georgia. Despite this, Russian troops continue to consolidate their positions, and there are reports that some Russian forces have advanced beyond Gori to within 25 miles of the Georgian capital.

Russian officials claimed that their recent maneuvers closer to Tbilisi (and into positions toward the flanks of the capital) were to create a corridor for Russian forces to withdraw. It is questionable why such maneuvers would be necessary in order for Russia to pull back. This raises the question of whether they are feinting toward Tbilisi as a final show of defiance prior to withdrawal, or if they might actually attempt a brazen advance on the capital.

It is clear that Russia is taking its time to establish itself in Georgia, sending the message that they can do whatever they want there, and that they will be the ones to dictate the way the war ends. It is impossible to tell at this point whether Russia intends to maintain a military presence throughout Georgia, seemingly in violation of the ceasefire agreement, or if they are just sending a message prior to their withdrawal.

Russia's failure to immediately withdraw back to South Ossetia and Abkhazia is increasing tensions with the United States, and Russia is also sending a message to Washington. President Bush is in no position to force Russia to do anything, and everyone knows it. Considering recent tensions between Russia and the US over missile defense systems in Poland and other forms of NATO encroachment, it is likely that Russia is demonstrating its ability and willingness to respond to what it perceives as threats on its borders.

The longer Russia holds their positions in Georgia, a number of things will happen.
1) Tensions with the US and Europe will increase.
2) Oil transports through Georgia will remain frozen (this increases pressure on Europe and demonstrates Western vulnerability).
3) Russia will demonstrate its power over the defeated Georgia.
4) The humanitarian situation in Georgia will get worse, with more people fleeing, resources stretching thin, and lawlessness getting worse.

It is most likely that Russia is now merely trying to send a message to Georgia and the West, and things will probably not escalate much further as long as this is the case. If Russia overtly attempts to oust Saakashvili's government, launches further sizable offensives into Georgian territory, or continues to bleed Georgia for too long by holding their positions, things could escalate again and get out of hand quickly.