Iraqi Elections

It seems that the elections in Iraq have gone quite well, with a good overall turnout and generally "light" violence. Early estimates put the Iraqi turnout at "up to 15 million" and most polling stations were able to remain open. One notable exception to this was in the largely Sunni Anbar province, where only 162 of 207 polling stations were opened because of "security fears". No doubt the closing of Sunni polling stations will be touted by opponents of the new government as an attempt to deprive Sunnis of their right to vote.

Fears of large-scale violence failed to materialize, as they have in the past, and the turnout seems to have been good, making the election successful overall. When considering these early estimates, however, it is smart to keep in mind that estimates of turnout in past elections have gone from suspiciously optimistic highs -- up to 87 percent in early estimates sometimes -- to much lower estimates later on. Because of this, it is possible that the "up to 15 million" figure will be adjusted down in the next few days. Even after being adjusted down, however, the turnout should be very healthy.

Bush supporters have jumped at the chance to declare victory with these elections,with John Gibson of Fox News declaring "We Won! We Won! We Won! We Won!". Among those more familiar with the political climate in Iraq, there is good reason to doubt that these elections will affect any large-scale change for the better in Iraq. Juan Cole, in a post (link here) on his blog today, expressed his doubts by referencing the LA Times article on the elections (story here):

The LA Times probably reflects the thinking of a lot of Americans in hoping that these elections are a milestone on the way to withdrawing US troops from Iraq. I cannot imagine why anyone thinks that. The Iraqi "government" is a failed state. Virtually no order it gives has any likelihood of being implemented. It has no army to speak of and cannot control the country. Its parliamentarians are attacked and sometimes killed with impunity. Its oil pipelines are routinely bombed, depriving it of desperately needed income. It faces a powerful guerrilla movement that is wholly uninterested in the results of elections and just wants to overthrow the new order. Elections are unlikely to change any of this.

While Bush supporters have become ecstatic at the Iraqis going through the motions of democracy -- casting ballots, electing representatives, organizing a bureaucracy -- few of them realize that this new government is utterly impotent and lacks the power to make policy or initate change in its own country. What little power it does have it owes completely to the US military. Iraqis of course see this, which only reinforces the impression that the new government is a US puppet regime.

While we can be happy that the Iraqi people are taking their first steps towards self-determination, it is foolish to conflate the empty motions of democracy with freedom or legitimate government. Establishing a thriving democracy is much, much more complicated than just having elections and inking as many fingers as possible. What is being called "democracy" in Iraq today is largely empty ritual. Without legitimacy, political power and the ability to enforce its decisions, the Iraqi "government" is nothing but a PR gimmick for Republicans who want to believe that we have succeeded in Iraq. As a wise man once said, sticking feathers up your butt does not make you a chicken. There's more to democracy than ballot boxes.