Surging in Iraq

As the new "surge" security plan in Baghdad and Anbar province continues, it remains unclear whether the additional forces are yet gaining significant ground. While death squad activity has dropped "dramatically" in Baghdad, the daily bombings continue unabated. Also, violence has increased in other areas, most significantly by 30 percent in the northeastern province of Diyala, where the American commander recently requested reinforcements to deal with the influx of insurgents who are relocating outside the area targeted by the "surge."

Coalition forces are also targeting Sadr City, the Baghdad slum and stronghold of Shiite militia leader Muqtada al-Sadr, who has apparently gone into hiding in Iran. The operations in Sadr City have thus far taken the form of limited raids -- which some have characterized as mere harassment -- and may be escalated in the future, although such an escalation in the Shiite neighborhood could further endanger the nation's fragile political processes. Coalition forces and the Iraqi government are also increasing efforts to divide Sadr's Madhi Army while he is away in Iran by holding talks with his top commanders.

While most observers insist it is too early to judge the success or failure of the new plan, Robert Kagan and Juan Cole have weighed in with their (opposite) interpretations of recent developments. Kagan, in an article for the Washington Post, cites the observations of Iraqi bloggers Mohammed and Omar Fadhil, who say that "early signs are encouraging," and that the new plan is having a positive psychological impact. Kagan also says that a compromise on oil revenue sharing appears to be "on its way to approval," and is hopeful that further political compromises will follow.

Juan Cole, in an article for Salon, asks, "Is the Bush surge already failing?" Cole says that Sunni insurgents are adapting their tactics, and points to the downing of 8 U.S. helicopters in the past 2 months as an indication. Cole also posits that the continued bombings in Tikrit, Ramadi, and the rest of Anbar province (as well as the spike in violence in previously-quiet areas such as Diyala and Ninevah) show that insurgents are not stepping down. Lastly, Cole thinks that, with the continued killings of Shiite pilgrims -- who had been protected by the now-suppressed Madhi Army in previous years -- recent attacks have, "shaken to the core the confidence of the Iraqi people in the new security plan."

General Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq and champion of the new surge, emphasized on Thursday that there is no military solution to the situation in Iraq. He is certainly right that the military measures will only be effective if they can spark significant political progress and sectarian reconciliation. Whether or not such reconciliation is possible at this point with all the blood that has been shed, and whether Iraqi Shiites and Sunnis can find enough common ground to forge a workable political consensus, will only be revealed with time.

Ultimately, the success or failure of the new plan depends on the Iraqi people and their reaction to the situation on the ground throughout the country. If the new plan can convince Iraqis that the government is worth supporting (and sacrificing for), things could begin to head in a different direction. If, on the other hand, Iraqis perceive the new effort as ineffective, or if the divisions that have plagued the government thus far continue to stand in the way, no number of dead insurgents can bring stability to Iraq.