Will the Ceasefire Make a Difference?

With the official beginning of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah beginning yesterday, August 14 at 8:00 a.m., a number of questions are arising as to whether the UN resolution will effectively halt the hostilities. Passed on August 11, United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 set forth a number of basic goals and necessary steps meant to bring about cessation of fighting and stabilize the region. The main points of the resolution are as follows:

• Full cessation of hostilities (OP1)
• Israel to withdraw all of its forces from Lebanon (OP2)
• Fully implementing the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords and resolutions 1559 and 1680 urging Lebanon to speed up the disarming of Hezbollah. (OP3)
• Full control of Lebanon by the government of Lebanon (OP3)
• No paramilitary forces, including (and implying) Hezbollah, will be south of the Litani River (OP8).

While these points address the most important aspects of the conflict, there remains some question as to how effective the resolution will be in bringing about an actual end to fighting. The reason for this concern stems not from the basic points of the resolution, but from the means of implementation and the possibly unrealistic conditions that must precede any international involvement. While the assistance of international forces will almost certainly be necessary to successfully remove Hezbollah from Southern Lebanon and disarm them, the resolution makes deployment of international forces contingent on there not being any other armed groups in the region. This means that either Israel or the weak Lebanese government will have to defeat and disarm Hezbollah before peacekeeping forces will even enter Lebanon.

The situation, then, is like this: Israel will not be obligated to leave Lebanon until the peacekeeping forces arrive, and Hezbollah has vowed to continue fighting until Israel pulls out. The UN forces will not move into Lebanon until Hezbollah stops fighting and is disarmed, however Hezbollah will not stop fighting as long as Israel is in Lebanon -- the Lebanese government is far too weak to disarm Hezbollah alone, yet it cannot receive any assistance until after it has already somehow disarmed Hezbollah. Further complicating the issue, Israel has said that it will continue to fight against Hezbollah until the UN forces arrive (story here), and Hezbollah has vowed to continue fighting until Israel leaves. Of course, the fact that the two sides will be fighting will preclude the possibility of international forces coming into the area.

The most likely result of this resolution, then, will be a lull in the fighting that will last for a short while as Hezbollah regroups and rearms. After this lull, either Hezbollah or Israel will launch an attack that will spark the resurgence of violence, which will continue indefinitely as UN forces wait for the fighting to stop (and for Hezbollah to give up its arms) before they move into Lebanon. In the meantime, the Lebanese government will attempt to convince Hezbollah to disarm, and will almost certainly fail since Hezbollah has vowed to continue the fight against Israel's invading forces.

This resolution, masterfully crafted by the unquestioningly pro-Israel U.S. to look like a path to cessation of hostilities, will in reality allow Israel to continue their operations indefinitely -- as if there was no ceasefire at all -- since international forces will steer clear until Hezbollah is wiped out. The only way things will progress differently than this is if somehow Hezbollah can be convinced to give up its arms, or if UN forces for some reason decide that they can move into Lebanon before Hezbollah is taken out of the picture. Since Israel and Hezbollah have openly declared that they intend to continue fighting, the only way the fighting will stop is if Hezbollah is eventually defeated or if Israel is forced to pull out of Lebanon. Considering the fact that last time Israel moved into Lebanon they remained there for 18 years, the prospects for peace anytime in the near future aren't looking very good.